Long-term targets

We all have targets, right? And we all know we should keep those targets short -termed to ensure their relevance, that they are easy to track and to ensure progression.

But that underestimates the magic of thinking long-term and setting additional targets that way - the short-term targets ensure progression, but "to what?", right? After all, as we Portuguese say, "Rome and Pavia weren't made in a day".

Bill Gates has a different way to put it: "Most people overestimate what they can do in one year but underestimate what they can do in ten years".

So, go forth - think about where you (or your project) want to be in 5 to 10 years time... and set them as your long-term targets and objectives.

Hallucinations

In the AI realm, a "hallucination" is a terrible thing. It is generally described as an output that lacks a basis - meaning that it is inaccurate. The AI system tries to give you the right answer for your question / prompt, but, for some reason, it lacks the right reasoning or data and gives you their best guess.

An example (from an IBM lecture): the AI database has been trained up until mid 2022 and you ask about a planet that has been discovered in January 2024. The system might generate a fictional, scenario-based and factually inaccurate answer based on its understanding of astronomy and scientific discoveries.

There are some user-side techniques to mitigate hallucinations. One of them is that you should check the database of the AI system (in my example, you should have a look at the cutoff date of the system). But probably the most powerful ones are to use prompt engineering techniques and tools, that work on the way you present your questions / prompts and guide the AI system through it.

Is it magic?

“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” - Arthur C Clarke

And I think that is exactly what you feel when you use a generative AI tool for the first time. There is that slight thrill of excitement followed by an afterthought - “how far can this go?”

We don’t have an answer for that yet. We know though that we are in the driving seat. We know that the success of companies and ventures in the next ten years will depend on how they drive that triple transformation that has been put in motion, combining AI, Sustainability and People. So... Let’s go - let’s master magic ;) !

Word of the year?

 People are talking a lot about Artificial intelligence - so much, it will probably be 2023's "word of the year". But when talking about AI we usually focus on the algorithms and the outcomes - and don't get me wrong, they are usually amazing in their own ways! But let me whisper you about two dimensions that are usually skipped:

- the first thing is about data. AI runs on data, so the kind and quality of the data you choose to input in the model (whether it is a Marketing CRM, a Chatbot to build trust and superiority on your product or a HR Attrition Predictor,...) will have a great influence on the outcomes from AI. The cleverer the data, the better the outcomes. And data choosing is typically a human input in the model;

- the other thing is that most of AI tools give you predictions. That's their output. But the job is typically not finished there - predictions by themselves are not the end game. It's what you do with them. It's the actions that you (a human) take from those predictions. The predictions enable a better decision making - but the calls are typically still done by you (even if you are incorporating them in a Communication Ecosystem built on a Customer Journey, as an example).

If you are using AI tools, don't underestimate the role of data and decision making. And don't underestimate the importance of human decisions to achieve better results.

Data vs AI

Data vs Algorithm

This is a really exquisite question – in AI (and given resources are limited in the real world) should a company invest in better data or better algorithms? Good question, right?

There is actually a study done by a Microsoft team that looked exactly at this topic – and the conclusion was… that usually (not always), collecting better data ends up being more valuable than investing in better algorithms => it generates better outcomes. The reasoning for this is modern algorithms’ performance differences are relatively small – and smaller than the difference in performance of the same algorithm with more/less data.

So… Data > Algorithm.

Now, a word of caution. There are businesses, where fortunes are made on infinitesimal differences (think about financial trading) – nobody will want to play with a slightly worse algorithm than its competitors…

Who is the leader in grocery ecommerce sales in the US? This is an easy question, right?

It might be, but it's not who you are probably thinking of.

Walmart is the grocery ecommerce sales in the US, with $59Bs projected sales in 2024 (vs Amazon's $41Bs). Actually, Walmart has been the leader since 2019, when it surpassed Amazon's sales and has been widening the gap ever since (source: Insider Intelligence).

It is thought Walmart's physical proximity to the vast majority of the US population has been a driving force behind this trend, as it enables simpler and faster delivery options, like curbside and in-store. Another example (and angle) of the rising importance of phygital...

(quick note - these figures are about grocery ecommerce, if we looked at overall ecommerce in the US, Amazon would still be leader)

Singles' Day 2023

In 1994, Dan Kohn sold a CD for $12.48 through an encrypted website he built himself. That's usually considered the first eCommerce transaction ever done.

Today, 11.11 (Saint Martin's day, by the way), is Singles' Day, the world's biggest eCommerce shopping event, with an estimated global sales level of $157 Billion in a single day, in 2022. This shopping event originated in China and is still mainly a Chinese one (a kind reminder that China is the biggest eCommerce market in the world), though we are starting to see it rippling through to Western markets.

From a $12.48 single pioneer sale to $157Bs in one day, eCommerce keeps on growing, as omnichannel approaches keep on driving sales where people spend time (and an average global citizen spends 6h41m online, daily). I am very curious to see the online sales evolution this year - with a keen eye on today's volume...