I already hinted at it here and there - I firmly believe mobile payments (the ability to make offline purchases through your cellphone) will strongly lift-off during this decade. I don't think it will be dominant (I think large chunks of population will refrain to use it for some time, because of security concerns, price of using it - especially from business side - or difficulties in adapting to the technology.) but I think it will capture an important chunk of the payment business. And it will do so based primarily on convenience, and then, maybe, on cost (if apps are able to compete with cards on fees levered to businesses). Still, I don't believe that the main drivers will be the individual apps that now thrive (like Starbucks'), but the integrated solutions that will allow multiple usage across multiple businesses and will integrate online purchases with the on the go offline's (solutions like Square, depicted in the video in link below, and PayPal's - and that might be why I just bought some eBay shares...). For some businesses, this represents an opportunity (if they want to be cool and technologically trendy) and a threat (if they don't adapt fast enough and don't bet in the winning solutions). Because, this will also be a battle of industry standards (like VHS vs Beta, or Visa vs Mastercard) - nobody believes there will be room for more than 1 or 2 global integrated mobile payment systems...
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